DOUBTS ON REGENERATIVE AG AS CLIMATE CHANGE SOLUTION: The debate over the science and feasibility of using agricultural practices to draw more carbon into soil has been simmering for some time. The discussion is intensifying as a bipartisan cadre of senators, including Senate Agriculture ranking member Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), introduced a measure last week aimed at legitimizing carbon markets in the ag sector. The bill is backed by industry heavyweights like the American Farm Bureau Federation, as well as a long list of food companies and other corporations interested in carbon offsets. "It sounds good, but doing this at scale is not easy," Janet Ranganathan, vice president for research, data and innovation at World Resources Institute, said during a webinar on the issue on Wednesday. "I do think we need to look before we leap." Some potential problems: One issue is how to ensure the carbon stored in soil is kept there and not tilled up during planting. Another is properly accounting for how carbon moves through ecosystems — that is to say, could carbon be just shifting around, without making a dent in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere? Throwing cold water on the idea: WRI in mid-May published a lengthy blog post questioning the potential for farmland to sequester carbon on a wide scale. "Our view is that the practices grouped as regenerative agriculture can improve soil health and yield some valuable environmental benefits, but are unlikely to achieve large-scale emissions reductions," the researchers wrote. A divide on the soil carbon question: Another group of scientists issued a beefy rebuttal, arguing that WRI's post "confuses rather than clarifies" the science and policy issues. "We believe that the science is clear that regenerative agriculture can in fact contribute significant emission reductions and CO2 removal, as well as improve soil health," the scientists countered. IN IOWA, SIGNS OF 2020 TROUBLE FOR TRUMP: The Midwest helped launch Trump into the White House in 2016, and Iowa — once considered a battleground — was widely expected to vote for him again this fall. But the state is starting to look more competitive at the presidential level as Trump's reelection prospects have weakened in recent weeks according to national polls, writes POLITICO's David Siders. Trump carried Iowa by 9 percentage points in 2016 — a wider margin than in Texas. Unlike other Midwestern swing states including Michigan and Wisconsin, where Trump narrowly edged out Hillary Clinton, it's surprising that Iowa is even on Democrats' radar this year. Trump's campaign in recent weeks has ramped up spending on Iowa TV ads. "The fact that they're advertising here, they wouldn't waste the money if they didn't need to," said Doug Gross, a Republican operative who was chief of staff to former Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, now the U.S. ambassador to China. Farm frustration? One potential factor is the financial pain felt by ag producers in recent years. Long before the coronavirus disrupted food supply chains, Trump's trade war and biofuel policies angered many in the industry, including those in some of Iowa's most important ag sectors like corn, pork and soybeans. There's no indication that farmers are abandoning Trump in significant numbers, but tough times in the farm economy could tamp down enthusiasm in related industries. Democrats so far have added twice as many active voters as Republicans, and they now lead in total registration for the first time in years. "We were approaching 'done' status — stick a fork in us," said Sue Dvorsky, a former chair of the Iowa Democratic Party. Now, "the worm is turning." Down-ballot struggles, too: Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is also expected to have a tough battle for reelection. A relatively unknown Democrat, Theresa Greenfield, won her primary last week. Recent polls have Greenfield in a slight lead over Ernst, though within the margin of error. MNUCHIN CALLS FOR MORE ECONOMIC RELIEF: Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told lawmakers on Wednesday that Congress should infuse more money into the economy, targeted toward helping specific businesses bounce back from the coronavirus pandemic, Pro Financial Services' Zachary Warmbrodt reports. At a Senate Small Business Committee hearing, Mnuchin said the Trump administration wants to work on additional stimulus programs, potentially including tax credits or further changes to the Paycheck Protection Program for small businesses including farms. But Congress remains divided over the need for more aid, especially after a much-better-than-expected May jobs report last week. The House passed another economic relief package last month, including much more aid for agriculture. But Senate Republicans aren't in favor of the legislation, and it could be months before lawmakers agree on a new stimulus package. Municipal job cuts: A central (and controversial) piece of the House bill was funding for state and local governments, many of which are facing budget shortfalls because of pandemic costs and the loss of tax revenue. The U.S. shed 585,000 government jobs last month as governors and local officials struggled to meet their payrolls, POLITICO's Megan Cassella and Eleanor Mueller report. The big picture: The Federal Reserve projects the economy will shrink by 6.5 percent this year before rebounding in 2021. The central bank also estimates that it will keep interest rates near zero at least through the end of 2022. Pro Financial Services' Victoria Guida has more details. | 
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