Friday, May 28, 2021

Opinion Today: America’s herd immunity threshold may be out of reach

And maybe that's OK, according to these experts.
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By Joanna Pearlstein

Staff Editor, Opinion

If you plotted the number of new Covid-19 cases reported in the United States each day since mid-December, when vaccines first became available, against the number of people vaccinated, you'd have a chart that would start to look something like a big X: Infections would be mapped on a downward slope from left to right, while the number of immunized people would be seen climbing over the same period.

That big X illustrates exactly how effective the vaccines have been at reducing the spread of Covid-19. More than half of American adults are now fully vaccinated.

When the pandemic began, scientists suggested that the herd immunity threshold for Covid-19 — the long-awaited state where enough people are immune to the coronavirus that the pandemic will finally be controlled — was 60 to 70 percent of the population. Experts have since revised that figure upward as they've learned more about the virus and as new variants have emerged.

But with vaccines unavailable to much of the world, and with pockets of hesitancy limiting immunization levels in the United States, reaching the herd immunity threshold may remain beyond our grasp.

Still, right now in the United States, we are seeing the benefits of herd immunity even before we hit the threshold. As three scientists who study infectious disease write in a guest essay today, it's not even clear that we need to achieve that state in order to escape the pandemic.

The closer a community gets to the threshold, "the more transmission slows down, which benefits everyone," write Erin A. Mordecai, Mallory J. Harris and Marc Lipsitch.

Since every person who catches Covid-19 can transmit it to several people, every shot in an arm can make that right side of the X a little bit taller, and get us just a skosh closer to ending the pandemic.

Programming note: This newsletter will be off Monday for the Memorial Day holiday. We'll see you in your inbox on Tuesday.

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Thursday, May 27, 2021

Opinion Today: ‘The church still holds great power’

A Catholic wrestles with church teaching on womanhood.
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By Sarah Wildman

Staff Editor, Opinion

Over the past several months, conservative state legislatures across the country have passed law after law that restrict access to abortion.

This month, Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas signed into law one more, a ban on abortions as early as six weeks (or after a fetal heartbeat can be detected), which has no exceptions for pregnancies conceived in rape or incest. With such a short time limit, once in place, the law will deny the procedure to women who may not yet even know that they've conceived.

The Supreme Court also announced this month that it will review Mississippi's ban on most abortions after 15 weeks. Mississippi already has only one abortion clinic, and legal efforts to undermine women's access to the procedure include a mandatory 24-hour waiting period and parental consent laws for minors. The state's 15-week law is a direct challenge to Roe v. Wade, the 48-year-old ruling that established federal protection for abortion in America. With a new conservative majority on the Supreme Court, many abortion rights advocates fear Roe will not hold.

Jamie Manson, a Catholic theologian and a longtime, staunch supporter of a woman's right to control her reproductive life, has political and personal reasons to be troubled by this legal climate.

When she faced the medical reality that her years of endometrial pain could best be resolved with a hysterectomy, she was surprised to find herself wrestling with the church's conservative teachings on fertility and womanhood.

"I was the last person, I thought, who would ever be vulnerable to John Paul II's attempt to limit women's power and potential with theological gymnastics," she writes in a guest essay today. "Yet I still struggled to shake that deeply ingrained notion that I was throwing away God's most important gift."

Manson argues that the Catholic teaching on what Pope John Paul II, among others, identified as one of a woman's most essential roles in life — namely child-rearing — has had a clear influence on American jurisprudence, politics and by extension a woman's control over her own body.

"Even among those of us who boldly proclaim our dissent from Catholic teachings on abortion, the church still holds great power," she writes.

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