| | | | | |  | | By Ryan McCrimmon | Editor's Note: Starting today this newsletter will be sent to your inbox each Monday morning and renamed Weekly Agriculture. It will give you a forward-looking view of the week ahead and the latest in Agriculture politics and policy news and insight. Interested in a more granular daily Agriculture policy newsletter? Get in touch to learn more about our daily policy newsletters available with a POLITICO Pro subscription. With help from Helena Bottemiller Evich WELCOME TO MORNING AG! We're trying out a slightly reimagined version of the Monday newsletters, so let us know what you think and what you want to know to start off your week. Here are three things we're watching this week: — Signs of stabilizing? Key pieces of the farm industry appear to have more of a handle on the severe supply chain disruptions of recent months. That includes some of the hardest-hit sectors, like beef and pork production. — The nutrition world is on high alert for the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee's final, full-blown recommendations to the government for healthy eating. The rollout is expected later this week; all eyes are on Wednesday. — Could rhetoric wreck Phase One? As the White House tries to pin the blame on China for America's worsening public health crisis, the increasingly bad blood might spell trouble for farmers and ranchers who were counting on a windfall from the partial trade deal between the two nations. IT'S MONDAY, JULY 13, and also National French Fry Day. Your host is celebrating accordingly. Send news tips, feedback, hot takes, etc. to rmccrimmon@politico.com and @ryanmccrimmon, and don't forget to follow us @Morning_Ag. | | | WHAT'S UP THIS WEEK? The Agriculture Department today will release another update on its $16 billion farm payment program. More than a third of the money had already been distributed to producers last week, on top of other stimulus programs pumping billions of dollars into the sector, like USDA's food box deliveries and the Paycheck Protection Program for small employers. With a suite of farm rescue efforts underway, and likely more agricultural aid on the way, there are also signs that segments of the farm economy have stabilized after months of unprecedented supply chain disruptions. The most prominent was the shutdown of meatpacking plants across the country where the virus was spreading like wildfire among workers. With massive slaughterhouses offline, many producers were left without buyers for their livestock, forcing them to euthanize animals. Fast-forward to July: There's still a major backlog of livestock, but slaughter rates are now returning to near-normal levels, as the American Farm Bureau Federation points out. The group suggests cattle prices should move higher in the coming months. Keep an eye out for other metrics that Congress and USDA might take into account as they consider additional farm stimulus measures in the weeks and months ahead. DGAC ON DECK: Later this week, stay tuned for the panel of nutrition experts to send its highly anticipated report to USDA and HHS with recommendations for the government's official dietary guidelines, which are updated every five years. The expected release comes after the committee unveiled draft recommendations in June, including suggestions for men to cut back on booze and for everyone to limit their added sugar intake even more than previously recommended. A big first: For the first time ever, the influential committee is covering key life stages, including looking at babies from birth to 24 months of age, as well as pregnant and lactating women. | | | | HAPPENING TOMORROW 9 a.m. EDT - A PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW WITH AUSTIN MAYOR STEVE ADLER : As coronavirus cases continue to spike in Texas, the city of Austin is preparing to turn the downtown convention center into a field hospital. Join Playbook authors Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman for a virtual interview with Austin Mayor Steve Adler that will reveal how he's navigating the rapid jump in the number of cases, how cities are working with state and local governments during the pandemic, and how a city known for its restaurants, bars and concerts is planning for what's to come. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | IF A TREE FALLS IN A FOREST, and there's no one around to replace it… A forestry labor shortage is looming after President Donald Trump last month cut off most seasonal H-2B work visas. The gap could leave America's forests short by millions of trees and potentially cause commercial and environmental damage. The timber industry is pressing the White House for an exemption for the sector — a decision they hope could be announced any day now, Pro Ag's Liz Crampton reports. Millions of new trees are needed every year to rebuild forests thinned by logging or wrecked by natural disasters. Most of the planting is done by temporary workers from Mexico or South America over six months starting each October; only a handful of U.S. workers typically respond to listings for forestry crews. By the numbers: In fiscal 2019, the Labor Department certified about 11,000 visas for forestry and conservation work. There were some 35,000 workers total in forestry and logging last year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The work is also critical for maintaining healthy ecosystems; replanting trees helps support wildlife and clean water, reduce soil erosion and absorb carbon. It's also a key industry for many states, especially in the West. Even the Forest Service relies on contract labor to maintain national forests and lands. Bad timing: The timber industry was already bracing for fewer trees to be planted this year because of the coronavirus pandemic, while forestry operations have had to spend more money to protect workers from getting sick.
| | | FORGET U.S.-CHINA PHASE TWO, TRUMP SAYS: The president threw cold water on the prospects for a follow-up trade agreement with China to tackle more fundamental economic disputes, telling reporters on Air Force One that his administration's relationship with Beijing has been "severely damaged," write Pro Trade's Gavin Bade and Doug Palmer. — Trump has tried to pin the worsening U.S. pandemic on China, where Covid-19 originated; he reiterated on Friday that the Chinese government "could have stopped the plague." Peter Navarro, Trump's trade adviser, claimed on Sunday that China sent a "weaponized virus" to the U.S., though there's no such evidence. — The tough talk against Beijing could be a problem not only for a future trade pact, but also the Phase One deal that took effect in February. With tensions rising, there's growing uncertainty about whether either side would go as far as to scrap the agreement entirely. China is already struggling to meet its commitments under the deal, namely its pledge to buy around $40 billion of U.S. farm goods this year and a similar amount in 2021. Those import targets were seen as extremely ambitious even before the pandemic caused a slowdown in global economic activity. NO NEW DUTIES FOR VIN ET FROMAGE: The Trump administration on Friday said it would slap a 25 percent tariff on $1.3 billion in French products, effective in six months, in retaliation for France's digital services tax on U.S. internet giants like Amazon, Facebook and Google. But several foods that were initially listed as potential tariff targets — including French champagne and cheeses — were spared from the duties, Doug reports. It's a victory for U.S. wine sellers who fought against putting champagne on the final list. Many wholesalers and retailers were already burned by retaliatory tariffs on European wines in a separate standoff over EU support for Airbus. — Industry groups estimated that an extra 25 percent duty on French sparkling wine would raise costs for U.S. importers by $179 million and force the sector to shed about 6,000 jobs. | | | | NEW THIS WEEK – POLITICO'S "FUTURE PULSE" NEWSLETTER : 2020 has wrought a global pandemic that has accelerated long-simmering trends in health care technology. One thing is certain: The health care system that emerges from this crisis will be fundamentally different than the one that entered. From Congress and the White House, to state capitols and Silicon Valley, Future Pulse spotlights the politics, policies and technologies driving long-term changes on the most personal issue for Americans: Our health. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | | — Florida smashed the national record for daily new coronavirus cases, reporting more than 15,000 on Sunday. The positivity rate was 11.25 percent — well below the state's record high of 18 percent last week, but still above the 10 percent threshold that public health experts consider a level of concern, per POLITICO Florida. — Surging coronavirus cases are once again leading to bare store shelves as grocers struggle to keep certain items in stock, like canned soup, flour, pasta and rice. Major manufacturers like Campbell Soup, Conagra and General Mills say they can't produce food fast enough to keep up with rising demand, The Wall Street Journal reports. — Climate change is likely to force some farmers to choose between risking more financial volatility or living with less fruitful but more predictable crop yields, according to new research published in Nature Communications. Using more drought-tolerant crop varieties to offset water shortages and higher temperatures could come with a cost. Cornell Chronicle has the details. — Canadian grocery presidents were grilled via Zoom last week by members of Parliament who demanded to know why the executives scrapped premium pay for essential workers last month. More from Pro Canada's Sue Allan. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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