Wednesday, February 23, 2022

Opinion Today: Madeleine Albright on Putin’s grave miscalculation

The former U.S. Secretary of State says an invasion of Ukraine ensures Putin's infamy.

By Yara Bayoumy and Cassandra Vinograd

When Vladimir Putin first appeared on the international stage in early 2000, he was a largely unknown quantity — plucked seemingly from obscurity and placed at the head of Russian government.

The ensuing two decades have left little doubt over his agenda — ruling Russia with an iron fist while showing no qualms about invading former Soviet republics for Moscow's gain — which brings us to where we are today. Europe is on the brink of a catastrophic war.

To help us understand why Putin is so intent on invading Ukraine, we turned to Madeleine Albright, a former U.S. Secretary of State. In early 2000, she became the first senior U.S. official to meet with Putin after he was made acting president of Russia. Their nearly 3-hour discussion at the Kremlin back then offers a helpful and illuminating lens through which to view both the origins and eventualities of this crisis.

In a guest essay for Times Opinion, she explains that Putin has long been fixated on restoring Russia to "greatness." As he made clear to her in their first meeting, he views the breakup of the Soviet Union as an embarrassment — a wrong he's determined to make right.

"Mr. Putin's revisionist and absurd assertion that Ukraine was 'entirely created by Russia' and effectively robbed from the Russian empire is fully in keeping with his warped worldview," Albright writes. "Most disturbing to me: It was his attempt to establish the pretext for a full-scale invasion."

While Putin might see taking Ukraine as a step toward attaining that ultimate goal, perhaps his obsession has blinded him to the reality. For, as Albright writes, he's poised to make a grave miscalculation.

"Instead of paving Russia's path to greatness, invading Ukraine will ensure Mr. Putin's own infamy by leaving his country diplomatically isolated, economically crippled and strategically vulnerable in the face of a stronger, more united Western alliance," she writes.

That is now clear: The West has announced new sanctions and promised more could come, and President Biden has announced plans to move more troops to the Baltics, to strengthen NATO's eastern flank. Whether that will change Putin's current calculus, though, is anyone's guess.

But Albright urges the West to remember: Putin will always be looking for more leverage to maximize his gains.

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