Europe seems to think so.
 | By Tim Schneider Staff Editor, Opinion |
There's going to be a war. Or is there? Following the saga in Ukraine, where Russia has apparently been on the brink of invading the country since November, is a bit like staring at an ouroboros, an ancient symbol that shows a snake eating its own tail. You watch what seems to be a definite development — a troop buildup here, a declaration there — only to see it disappear back where it came from. All you're left with is a creeping sense of dread. |
Thankfully we have Ivan Krastev, a permanent fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna, to peer into the gloom. He doesn't find a simple explanation — but something, perhaps, more useful: insight into why the United States and Europe are approaching the crisis differently. |
The divergence is stark. While President Biden, who on Wednesday formally approved the deployment of U.S. troops to Eastern Europe, has stepped up preparations for a possible war, European leaders — along with their Ukrainian counterparts — have generally sought to play down the imminent threat of invasion. (Vladimir Putin, for his part, maintains that he has no intention of invading.) |
What's going on here? Krastev, in a guest essay this week, comes to a compelling conclusion. "Europeans and Ukrainians are skeptical of a major Russian invasion in Ukraine not because they have a more benign view of Mr. Putin than their American counterparts," he argues. "On the contrary, it's because they see him as more malicious." The Kremlin, the Europeans reason, can achieve its aims — destabilizing the West and winning recognition of Russia's sphere of influence — through other, less risky means. That's because, strange as it may seem, "for Europe, the threat of war might be more destructive than war itself." |
That doesn't tell us what's going to happen, of course. But it casts some welcome light on the past few weeks — and smartly lays out the stakes for those ahead. Invasion or no invasion, Europe will have to find a response to the challenges posed by a more assertive Russia. |
As for the rest of us, well, we'll have to wait and see. |
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