Does not matter: What’s at stake for agriculture — Pork industry backs trade action against Thailand

Nov 02, 2020

With help from Doug Palmer and Gavin Bade

Editor's Note: Weekly Agriculture is a weekly version of POLITICO Pro's daily Agriculture policy newsletter, Morning Agriculture. POLITICO Pro is a policy intelligence platform that combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.

DRIVING THE WEEK

WELCOME TO ELECTION WEEK: Let's get right into it, starting with what we're watching and what's at stake for food and agriculture policy this week.

President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden are fighting primarily over a small handful of battleground states in the Upper Midwest and the Sun Belt, including some major farm states like Iowa, Wisconsin and even Texas. Biden is widely seen as the overall favorite, with a longstanding lead in national and swing-state polls — but few people are counting Trump out, especially after his historic upset victory in 2016.

What will we know, and when will we know it? Keep in mind that critical states might not be decided on Tuesday night — think Michigan and Pennsylvania — because of a flood of mail-in voting amid the pandemic and wide-ranging policies about when local officials can begin processing absentee ballots. (Our friends at POLITICO's Nerdcast have a great explainer on all that here.)

WHAT'S AT STAKE FOR AGRICULTURE? A Biden win would bring about a major shift in the direction of food and farm programs, most notably on issues like the nutrition safety net and the intersection of agriculture and climate change. For farmers and ranchers, Biden's approach to tariffs and trade could be easier on their bottom lines after Trump's multiyear battles with China and other partners — but he might not offer the same direct taxpayer support that Trump increasingly handed to the industry.

— If voters give Trump another term, he's likely to solidify his deregulatory agenda that's largely popular within the farm industry, like further easing of restrictions that govern slaughterhouses, pesticides and farmland bodies of water, to name a few. His agriculture officials are also sure to continue chipping away at pieces of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and shrinking the Agriculture Department's scientific footprint in D.C.

— Don't forget: There are also close congressional races with big implications for agriculture. Republicans aren't likely to flip the House, but they might finally defeat Agriculture Chair Collin Peterson in his conservative Minnesota district. And Peterson isn't the only House Agriculture member in a toss-up race.

— On the Senate side, seats are up for grabs in major farm states including Georgia, Iowa, Kansas and North Carolina. If Democrats flip enough of those states (and others), they'll control the Senate for the next two years — giving them either a major check on Trump's second-term food and farm agenda or more power to help reshape agriculture policy under a Biden administration.

HAPPY MONDAY, NOV. 2! Your host hopes everyone had a safe and spooky Halloween weekend. Send Election Day survival tips to rmccrimmon@politico.com and @ryanmccrimmon, and follow us @Morning_Ag.

EXCLUSIVE: "THE CIRCUS" & POLITICO TEAM UP TO PULL BACK THE CURTAIN ON THE MOST UNPRECEDENTED PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN HISTORY: It's been the most unconventional and contentious election season of our lifetime. The approach taken by each candidate couldn't be more different, yet the stakes couldn't be higher as we cross the finish line. Join POLITICO's John Harris, Laura Barrón-López, Gabby Orr and Eugene Daniels in a conversation with John Heilemann, Alex Wagner, Mark McKinnon and Jennifer Palmieri of Showtime's "The Circus" on Thursday, Nov. 5 at 8 p.m. EST for an insiders' look at the Trump and Biden campaigns, behind-the-scenes details and nuggets from the trail, and the latest on where things stand and where they are heading. DON'T MISS THIS! REGISTER HERE.

On the Campaign Trail

THE FINAL LAP: Trump's last day of campaigning is a busy one. He's back in Fayetteville, N.C., this morning before flying out for afternoon rallies in Scranton, Pa., and Traverse City, Mich. Then it's off to Kenosha, Wis., and finally back to Michigan to close the night with a 10:30 p.m. event in Grand Rapids.

Biden is campaigning across Ohio and Pennsylvania today, while former President Barack Obama stumps for his former veep in Georgia and South Florida.

Former President Barack Obama arrives during a drive-in campaign rally with Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden at Belle Isle in Detroit, Michigan.

Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Trade Corner

PORK INDUSTRY BACKS TRADE ACTION AGAINST THAILAND: The Trump administration on Friday suspended more than $800 million in trade from Thailand from the Generalized System of Preferences program, which exempts partners from tariffs, blaming Bangkok for slow-walking market access for U.S. pork exports, our Pro Trade friends tell MA.

"For years, Thailand has taken full advantage of special U.S. trade benefits, while imposing a completely unjustified de facto ban on U.S. pork," said Howard "AV" Roth, president of the National Pork Producers Council, which petitioned USTR in 2018 to review Thailand's eligibility for the program.

The details: The $817 million worth of trade represents about a sixth of Thailand's exports to the U.S. under GSP. The list of exports that will be removed from the program after Dec. 20 includes plants and food products, as well as industrial and consumer goods.

In Case You Missed It

LAST WEEK TODAY — Our rundown of the biggest news and notes you might have missed last week:

— Trump's food box letters pose pre-election headaches: Food banks and other nonprofits are scrambling to remove or explain the promotional letters signed by Trump that they're required to stuff into boxes of meat, produce and milk for millions of hungry families. They're spending considerable resources in the closing days of the election to avoid the appearance of helping Trump boost his image among potential voters who rely on the USDA pandemic relief program.

— Farmers can keep spraying dicamba on their crops for the next five years, after the EPA extended its approval of the controversial weedkiller, with some additional restrictions. The herbicide has sparked personal feuds among farmers when it drifts onto neighboring fields and damages nearby crops.

— The Trump administration is fighting in federal court to block states from giving billions of dollars in emergency food stamps to the lowest-income Americans during the coronavirus crisis. After being ordered by a federal judge to proceed with payments in one case, USDA is continuing to appeal.

SUBSCRIBE TO TRANSITION PLAYBOOK: No matter who wins this week, a lot will change in the coming months. Advisers to both candidates have been working behind the scenes for months, vetting potential nominees, political appointments, and drafting policy proposals for the first 100 days. Our Transition Playbook newsletter, written for political insiders, tracks the appointments, the people, and the next administration's power centers. Don't miss out. Subscribe today.

Row Crops

— Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham are taking opposite approaches to close out the campaign, a race that's likely to determine whether Republicans keep their Senate majority for the next two years. Tillis is barnstorming the state alongside big GOP names including Trump and Vice President Mike Pence, while Cunningham is lying low, writes POLITICO's James Arkin.

— The debate over mask mandates has become a defining political issue in Iowa ahead of tomorrow's elections, as federal and state leaders shirked difficult decisions about public safety measures and left it up to local communities to decide, leading to a standoff between neighbors in Dubuque County. Pro Health Care's Dan Diamond has the story.

— China is flying in record numbers of pigs from Europe as the Asian nation tries to replenish its massive hog herds that were wiped out by African swine fever. More than 15,300 live swine worth $32 million landed in China over the first nine months of 2020, according to customs data, including breeding stock from Denmark, France and the U.K. Bloomberg has the details.

— The EPA's data shows that damage from dicamba could be much worse than previously known, a revelation that comes just as the agency extended the pesticide's registration for another five years, according to the Midwest Center for Investigative Reporting.

— Trump and Biden have both tried to appeal to Midwestern voters, especially in Iowa, by touting their support for ethanol. Reuters has a good rundown of the biggest biofuel issues that the next president will need to address. Read it here.

THAT'S ALL FOR MA! Drop us a line: rmccrimmon@politico.com; hbottemiller@politico.com; lcrampton@politico.com; jyearwood@politico.com and pjoshi@politico.com.