Does not matter: Biden beats Trump with Midwest, Sun Belt wins — What it means for food and ag — Seafood, farm exports face new EU tariffs

Nov 09, 2020

Presented by Masterworks

With help from Doug Palmer

Editor's Note: Weekly Agriculture is a weekly version of POLITICO Pro's daily Agriculture policy newsletter, Morning Agriculture. POLITICO Pro is a policy intelligence platform that combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.

Quick Fix

— Former Vice President Joe Biden is now President-elect Joe Biden. The Democrat secured an Electoral College victory over President Donald Trump on Saturday, after scoring crucial wins in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and finally Pennsylvania.

— What does Biden's win mean for food and ag? That might hinge on whom he picks to run the Agriculture Department. The new administration is expected to reverse course from Trump on issues like ag trade, environmental regulations and food assistance.

— But he'll have to contend with a potential Senate Republican majority that could stifle his most ambitious plans, unless Democrats flip a pair of GOP-held Georgia seats in runoff elections on Jan 5.

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HAPPY MONDAY, NOV. 9! Welcome to your Weekly Agriculture report, where it's udderly surprising that one third of young Americans say they've never seen a cow in person. You know the deal: Send tips to rmccrimmon@politico.com and @ryanmccrimmon, and follow us @Morning_Ag.

DRIVING THE WEEK

President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris

President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris. | Andrew Harnik/Pool via AP Photo

HOW AG POLICY COULD PIVOT UNDER BIDEN: The former veep defeated the president by reversing Trump's 2016 gains in the traditionally blue Upper Midwest states, flipping Arizona and potentially winning Georgia, where votes are still being counted. Our Pro Ag team has the full rundown of the biggest food and farm issues to watch as Biden takes over in Washington, but let's check out some of the highlights.

Big picture: For aggies, one of the central questions now is whether a Biden administration will hew close to the status quo or bring sweeping changes on issues like ag labor, climate-friendly farming or antitrust efforts. His choice of USDA chief will be an early indicator.

— Who's in the mix? Biden's main ag adviser, former Secretary Tom Vilsack, is said to be backing former North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp for the top job — a solidly moderate Democrat who could face less resistance from Senate Republicans during confirmation. Heitkamp sounds open to joining the Cabinet if asked, telling NBC's affiliate in Bismarck that it's "every citizen's responsibility to work to bridge our differences and make America stronger" and that she "will do everything in [her] power" to assist the new president.

— Other potential contenders are Reps. Cheri Bustos (Ill.) and Marcia Fudge (Ohio), although Bustos narrowly survived her reelection race in a Trump-friendly rural district where Democrats might be wary to create an opening for Republicans. For her part, Fudge has been one of the toughest critics of Trump's food and ag agenda, especially USDA's crackdown on nutrition benefits. Fudge also has a growing coalition backing her, including progressive aggies and the Congressional Black Caucus.

There are plenty of ways Biden could unwind Trump's farm agenda: After Trump's EPA scrapped the Obama administration's Waters of the U.S. rule, which was widely despised by farmers, Biden has said he would scrutinize Trump's much narrower replacement regulation, incorporating feedback from farmers and ranchers.

He's also talked about stepping up antitrust enforcement efforts, including in the farm industry. There's bipartisan concern about agricultural consolidation, particularly in meat production, especially after the coronavirus sparked fears of a meat shortage when massive slaughterhouses shut down and producers were left without any buyers for their livestock.

SNAP reversal: Most notably, Biden is sure to reverse Trump's pre-pandemic attempts to decrease participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, which accounts for the vast majority of USDA's spending. He's said he wants to expand household SNAP benefits by 15 percent during the economic downturn, something Democrats have unsuccessfully tried to include in economic rescue measures.

One Trump policy Biden might keep: With the pandemic dragging on, the new president might choose to keep steering huge sums of taxpayer dollars to farmers and ranchers to offset their financial losses as a result of supply chain disruptions. On the other hand, if Biden eases the tit-for-tat tariffs that Trump imposed, there will be less need to dole out more trade aid.

— If USDA keeps ad hoc payments flowing, Biden's ag secretary is likely to rethink how to distribute the money across the industry, after Trump's bailout programs were criticized for disproportionately helping Southern farms and big producers over others.

There's a big "But" on all of these issues — and his name is Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell . The Senate is likely to remain in GOP control after Democratic candidates fell short in many states they thought they could flip. If Republicans can win two run-off Senate races in Georgia on Jan. 5, they'll be in position to stifle any left-leaning policies or progressive Cabinet picks that Biden puts forth. ( Read up on Biden's long relationship with McConnell.)

You might also be interested in: How Biden will handle the pandemic, Trump's trade war, climate change and tax policy.

Not to be overlooked: Coronavirus cases smashed another record on Saturday, the fourth day in a row of more than 100,000 positive tests.

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Trade Corner

TRANSATLANTIC TARIFFS SET TO ESCALATE: The EU today is expected to unveil its plans to retaliate against as much as $4 billion in U.S. products, including seafood, farm goods and booze, our Pro Trade friends tell MA. (Here's the list of potential targets.) But Trump has threatened to hit back with higher tariffs on European goods.

How we got here: The tit-for-tat is part of the longstanding dispute over government subsidies for aerospace giants Airbus and Boeing. The WTO recently decided that Brussels could take action against the U.S. in the dispute because of past tax breaks for Boeing in Washington state, even though those measures were recently repealed.

The Trump administration has already slapped 25 percent duties on European cheese, whiskey and wine, along with many other products. EU officials are hoping that raising tariffs on U.S. goods will bolster their leverage in negotiations to resolve the dispute.

TRACK THE TRANSITION, SUBSCRIBE TO TRANSITION PLAYBOOK: The definitive guide to what could be one of the most consequential transfers of power in American history. Our Transition Playbook newsletter—written for political insiders—tracks the appointments, people, and power centers of the new administration. Don't miss out. Subscribe today.

In Case You Missed It

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE AG GAVEL: House Agriculture Chair Collin Peterson's defeat has left a gaping hole atop the committee, and jockeying for his seat is already underway. So far, Reps. David Scott (Ga.) and Jim Costa (Calif.) have announced their interest in the top job, and Fudge is seen as a possible contender if she isn't tapped to run USDA. Our Helena Bottemiller Evich and Liz Crampton have the details.

Election Watch

RACE UPDATE: Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) has officially been reelected to a second term after a close race in her suburban Richmond district, according to the Associated Press. The freshman lawmaker and House Ag subcommittee chair had already declared victory over Republican Nick Freitas.

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Row Crops

— Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) and Democrat Jon Ossoff will compete in a runoff election in January after neither candidate reached 50 percent of the Election Day vote last week. Both of the state's Senate seats and control of the chamber will be up for grabs on Jan. 5, when Senate Ag member Kelly Loeffler also faces Raphael Warnock in a special election runoff.

— The Washington Supreme Court ruled last week that dairy workers in the state are entitled to overtime pay if they work more than 40 hours a week, and the decision is expected to be applied to the rest of the farm industry, the Associated Press reports.

— At least one employee at more than 80 percent of Trader Joe's stores has been infected by the coronavirus. The grocer said 1,250 of its 53,000 employees have tested positive for Covid-19 since the start of the pandemic, or roughly 2.4 percent of its workforce. Grocery Dive has more details.

— A Quality Sausage Company plant in Dallas was fined more than $25,000 by the Labor Department for violating Covid-19 safety guidelines, after a plant worker died from the coronavirus in April. Bloomberg Law has the backstory.

— Grocery chains including Kroger and Giant are reimposing limits on purchases of items like toilet paper and cleaning supplies as coronavirus cases soar across the country. More from CNN.

— Correction: Friday's edition of Morning Ag misstated the location of Rep. Angie Craig 's district. She represents Minnesota's 2nd District.

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