Now he's ready to call 2020.
More than half of American adults will cast a ballot (some by mail, where that’s allowed) this November for one of two men in their 70s to lead the country through a pandemic and an economic catastrophe. There appears to be a whole lot of interest in predicting which candidate will receive more Electoral College votes. Foreign governments are watching closely, computer algorithms are cranking, European sportsbooks have already set odds, pet animals are likely to once again weigh in and pollsters have, for months, been offering a constant blur of predictions. |
If you already feel exhausted — or still wounded from 2016 — you’re not alone. Today, our gift to you is a Video Op-Ed featuring an exclusive 2020 forecast from Allan Lichtman, the Nostradamus of presidential election predictions who correctly predicted the outcome of the 2016 election. |
 | | The New York Times Opinion Video |
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Allan, a history professor at American University, has successfully predicted nearly all presidential election winners over four decades, starting with Ronald Reagan’s victory, which he called two years before the 1984 election. He flaunts his most recent success by showing off the thank-you note he received from Donald Trump (yes, written with a Sharpie). |
And if you still doubt Allan’s prowess, back in 2016, he also predicted Trump would be impeached. If Allan cared about Super Bowls as much as politics, he might be banned from Vegas. He’s no medium or psychic. So what’s his secret? For one, he’s a critic of polling, arguing polls are just snapshots — a reflection of a point and time — and not accurate predictors. In the 1980s, Allan and a colleague invented a quasi-scientific system — he calls them “keys” — assessing how the party in the White House actually governed. |
His 13 keys largely ignore the drama and ups and downs of the campaign trail — like the attack ads and awkward visits to county fairs. This clutter typically consumes the spotlight of news coverage, though admittedly, much of it is missing this year because of the pandemic. Instead, Allan’s 13 keys focus on substantive metrics and policy assessments, such as short- and long-term economic growth, foreign policy successes, social unrest and scandal. Only two of these keys consider personality traits of the candidates. |
Allan can be quick to make his prediction well in advance of an election, so we began talking to him about this video in October last year. And he admits he still gets a knot in his stomach before each call. Being right isn’t always easy, right? |
He called Trump a history breaker — saying if anything could trip up a system that explains more than 100 years of presidential elections, it may be Trump. And then came the pandemic, which caused a delay in his forecast and a recalibration of his keys. But now we have it. Go on — watch the video produced by Nayeema Raza and Kristopher Knight to find out who Allan predicts will win the 2020 election. |
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