David Shor is predicting our political future.
David Shor started modeling elections in 2008, when he was a 20-something blogger, and he proved good at it. By 2012, he was deep inside Barack Obama's re-election campaign, putting together the fabled "Golden Report," which modeled the election daily, and ultimately called the popular vote to within a tenth of a percentage point and correctly predicted every state but Ohio. |
Now he's scared. Since 2019, he's been building something he calls "the power simulator." It's a model that predicts every House and Senate and presidential race between now and 2032 to try and map out the likeliest future for American politics. He's been obsessively running and refining these simulations over the past two years. And they keep telling him the same thing. |
"We're screwed in the Senate," he told me. Only he didn't use the word screwed. |
Let's say Senate Democrats have a pretty good year for the in-power party in 2022 and win 51 percent of the total Senate vote. Shor's model suggests they'll lose a seat, and so the Senate. But it's 2024 where things get very grim for them. Let's say they win 51 percent of the vote again. Shor's model predicts they'll lose seven seats. |
This is how bad the Democrats' Senate woes are: They could win a majority of voters in the next two elections and end with only 42 seats in the Senate. As frustrated as Democrats are by the hammerlock Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema have on their agenda now, this may be the high watermark of power the party holds for the next decade. |
We've built a version of Shor's model that you can use to simulate the next two Senate elections yourself. It allows you to see what he sees. The problem Democrats face is twofold: First, the country is polarizing by education, and Democrats' more college-educated base is clustered in cities and suburbs, while the Senate favors rural voters, and thus the Republican Party. Second, voters used to cheerfully split their tickets, voting for a president of one party and a senator of another. But that's become rare, so it's nearly impossible for individual Democratic Senate candidates to escape the reputation of their party. |
Atop this analysis, Shor has developed a theory of what Democrats need to do to prevent electoral Armageddon. And it begins with recognizing that the Democratic Party's biggest problem is, well, the Democratic Party. This theory has made Shor one of the most influential and controversial figures in Democratic politics. But he's kicked off a debate Democrats need to have, and it's one I profile here. |
Interested in exploring how race and language shape our politics and culture? Join John McWhorter and Jane Coaston for a discussion — and a special live performance — in this virtual event on Thursday, Oct. 14, exclusively for Times subscribers. R.S.V.P. here to attend. |
Here's what we're focusing on today: |
Forward this newsletter to friends to share ideas and perspectives that will help inform their lives. They can sign up here. Do you have feedback? Email us at opiniontoday@nytimes.com |
Contact Us If you have questions about your Times account, delivery problems or other issues, visit our Help Page or contact The Times. |
|
No comments:
Post a Comment