Does not matter: Sprint to the stimulus finish line — Farm income in the Biden era — Meet the House Agriculture ranking members

Feb 08, 2021

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Quick Fix

— Congress took a major step on Friday toward passing a new economic rescue package through the budget reconciliation process. Democratic committee leaders today will start drafting the $1.9 trillion legislation that the House is aiming to pass by the end of this month.

— The Agriculture Department expects farm income to flatten out in 2021 as Washington pumps the brakes on last year's massive agricultural aid programs.

— House Republicans picked their six subcommittee ranking members for the House Agriculture Committee. Democrats have not yet named their subcommittee chairs.

HAPPY MONDAY, FEB. 8! Welcome to your Weekly Agriculture report, where we can't believe Tom Brady won another Super Bowl. Send tips to rmccrimmon@politico.com and @ryanmccrimmon, and follow us @Morning_Ag.

DRIVING THE WEEK

SPRINT TO THE STIMULUS FINISH LINE: It's off to the races for congressional leaders to start piecing together a $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package, after the Senate adopted a budget resolution in the early hours of Friday morning and the House signed off shortly afterward on the amended version.

Now what? As regular MA readers well know, the budget resolution allows the Senate to skirt its usual 60-vote threshold and pass the stimulus bill with a simple majority. While most House members have left town for two weeks, Democratic committee chairs will work to assemble their sections of the sprawling rescue package, which Speaker Nancy Pelosi is aiming to bring to the floor the week of Feb. 22, per POLITICO's Sarah Ferris and Heather Caygle.

ICYMI: The $1.9 trillion economic rescue plan that President Joe Biden proposed last month included several provisions to expand nutrition benefits and help struggling restaurants, along with $1,400 stimulus checks and expanded unemployment relief.

THE BIDEN-ERA'S FIRST FARM INCOME OUTLOOK: The Agriculture Department expects farmers to earn a lot more money from their crops and livestock in 2021 — but not enough to offset higher production costs and a steep dropoff in taxpayer aid, your host reports.

USDA's forecast for $111.4 billion in net farm income this year would represent a nearly $10 billion decline compared to 2020, when Congress and the Trump administration flooded the farm sector with coronavirus relief payments. The department expects direct agricultural support will fall from a record $46 billion last year to about $25 billion this year.

The good news: Cash receipts are expected to rise by $11.8 billion for crops and $8.6 billion for livestock, as agricultural exports and commodity prices rebound after years of trade headwinds and pandemic-related supply chain disruptions. On the other side of the ledger, farm expenses are expected to increase as producers spend more on fertilizer, feed and labor, USDA said.

A giant caveat: The outlook could change dramatically depending on the trajectory of the pandemic and any additional relief programs. Entirely new sources of farm income are also possible, like a USDA-backed carbon credit market that the Biden administration is thinking about creating through the $30 billion Commodity Credit Corporation.

FWIW: We dug up last year's February forecast to check the department's pre-Covid outlook for the farm economy, as a reminder of how much and how quickly things can change. USDA at the time predicted that government farm support would fall by 37 percent in 2020. In the end, direct aid more than doubled last year, bringing farm income to a whopping $120 billion instead of the $96.7 billion that USDA initially projected.

MEET THE HOUSE AGRICULTURE RANKING MEMBERS: Pennsylvania Rep. G.T. Thompson , top Republican on the House Agriculture Committee, unveiled the members who will lead the GOP side of the six subcommittees:

— Rep. Austin Scott (Ga.), General Farm Commodities and Risk Management;

— Rep. Michelle Fischbach (Minn.), Commodity Exchanges, Energy and Credit, R&D, and Broadband;

— Rep. Doug LaMalfa (Calif.), Conservation and Forestry;

— Rep. Don Bacon (Neb.), Nutrition, Oversight, and Department Operations;

— Rep. Jim Baird (Ind.), Biotechnology, Horticulture, and Research;

— Rep. Dusty Johnson (S.D.), Livestock and Foreign Agriculture.

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AUTOMATION INTENSIFIES: The massive workplace disruptions caused by the pandemic have driven companies to ramp up their automation efforts, accelerating a displacement of jobs that labor advocates and regulators aren't prepared to address, writes POLITICO's Eleanor Mueller.

The challenge: While automation is poised to create millions of new work opportunities, it's squeezing out existing jobs at a much faster rate. For now, blue-collar workers in industries like foodservice and manufacturing are the most at risk of being replaced by technology — but artificial intelligence and other advanced innovations will soon come for white-collar employees, too.

What to do? Lawmakers, unions and industry groups are calling for more spending on workforce training to reinforce dozens of existing programs that are widely seen as inadequate and uncoordinated. The U.S. currently allocates less money to training workers than many other advanced nations.

"There's lots of global lessons we can draw on," says Mary Kay Henry, president of the Service Employees International Union.

Row Crops

— A legislative proposal from California Gov. Gavin Newsom to increase pesticide fees based on toxicity is facing blowback from the agriculture industry. It's considered more likely to become law after a procedural determination that passing the bill requires only a simple majority, Pro California's Debra Kahn explains.

— The American Farm Bureau Federation and other business groups came out against Democrats' push for a $15 minimum wage, warning that the increase would put another strain on struggling businesses and force them to raise prices or lay off workers, per POLITICO Influence.

— Each of Virginia's legislative chambers on Friday approved bills to legalize recreational marijuana, and they'll soon launch a conference committee to iron out the differences. Pro Cannabis's Mona Zhang has the details.

— The New York Times' Nicholas Kristof writes about disturbing conditions at a Costco chicken farm in Nebraska documented by an undercover animal rights advocate. Read the opinion piece.

— Nurseries and seed sellers are still seeing record demand for their products nearly a year into the pandemic, as people stuck at home continue to grow "Covid gardens." NPR has the story.

— The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has a profile of the six poultry plant workers killed by a nitrogen leak at the Foundation Food Group facility in Gainesville, Ga. last month. More here.

THE UNOFFICIAL GUIDE TO OFFICIAL WASHINGTON: February is short month, but there is a lot in store. From the impeachment trial to the Covid relief package to intraparty squabbles, our new Playbook team is on the case. Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza and Tara Palmeri are canvassing every corner of Washington, bringing you the big stories and scoops you need to know – and the insider nuggets that you want to know – about the new power centers and players. "This town" has changed. And no one covers this town like Playbook. Subscribe to the unofficial guide to official Washington today .

THAT'S ALL FOR MA! Drop us a line: rmccrimmon@politico.com; hbottemiller@politico.com; lcrampton@politico.com; jyearwood@politico.com and pjoshi@politico.com.