Does not matter: Picking up the pieces after Capitol attack — The key to Democrats’ agenda

Jan 11, 2021

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DRIVING THE WEEK

The flag being lowered outside the Capitol is pictured. | Getty Images

The Capitol Building flag is lowered to half-staff following the death of a U.S. Capitol Police Officer who was injured during the siege on Jan. 6. Lawmakers this week will continue debating how to respond to the violent insurrection. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images

PICKING UP THE PIECES: Washington remains consumed by the fallout from the attack on the U.S. Capitol by President Donald Trump's supporters last week. Arrests are underway around the country, Trump is facing pressure from both sides to resign after inciting the deadly insurrection, and the House is poised to bring articles of impeachment — all with just nine days until President-elect Joe Biden's inauguration.

— House Agriculture Chair David Scott (D-Ga.) is among the many lawmakers calling for Trump to be "immediately removed from office." His soon-to-be Senate counterpart, Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), has also endorsed booting Trump from the White House through impeachment or removal by his own Cabinet.

— No talk of the 25th: Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue last week said he has no plans to discuss removing Trump from office via the 25th Amendment, though he suggested he was "disappointed" in Trump's incitement of the violent mob on Wednesday.

The trade-offs: Top Democrats have questioned whether rushing to impeach Trump might hamper their ability to quickly confirm Biden's nominees and start advancing his agenda, including plans for immediately stepping up the pandemic response. But Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Sunday night vowed to move forward with impeachment unless Vice President Mike Pence invokes the 25th Amendment (which is still considered unlikely).

We'll get more clarity today about the timeline for action by Congress, and how it could affect the jam-packed legislative agenda for the months ahead. More on that below …

WELCOME TO WEEKLY AGRICULTURE, after an ugly, surreal week in Washington. Here's a bit of good news: Animal adoptions are still booming nearly a year into the pandemic. Send tips to rmccrimmon@politico.com and @ryanmccrimmon, and follow us @Morning_Ag.

HAPPENING THURSDAY - THE COVID-19 VACCINE ROLLOUT: What are the logistical challenges facing the coronavirus immunization campaign? Who is overseeing the process and working to overcome obstacles to ensure that vulnerable groups have access to the vaccine? Join POLITICO for a virtual discussion on the outgoing Trump administration's plan to prioritize lower-income, rural, and communities of color for vaccine distribution and what the Biden administration can do to streamline plans and fill in any gaps. REGISTER HERE.

DEEP DIVE

THE KEY TO DEMOCRATS' AGENDA: If you're not familiar with the "budget reconciliation" process yet, do yourself a favor and get up to speed with this explainer from Pro Budget's Caitlin Emma. Democrats' ability to utilize the arcane but powerful legislative tool could make or break Biden's agenda on Capitol Hill over the next two years, from massive infrastructure spending and further stimulus efforts to health care changes and maybe even a sweeping climate change package.

How it works: In short, budget reconciliation allows the Senate to circumvent the traditional 60-vote threshold and pass legislation with a simple majority. The procedure is complicated, because reconciliation was intended to be used for deficit-reduction purposes, but lawmakers have long been able to pass significant policy changes on other topics by connecting them to taxes and spending.

— "The possibilities are endless," House Budget Chair John Yarmuth told POLITICO last year. "I think you'd want to do it for the biggest possible package you could."

— Still, Democrats would need to step carefully to avoid procedural tripwires like the so-called Byrd rule, which lets senators challenge and potentially kill items in the reconciliation bill that are deemed extraneous.

If this sounds familiar: Republicans used the budget reconciliation process in 2017 to pass their tax code overhaul, after their failed health care repeal effort earlier in the year.

Because the tool stems from the annual budget process, Democrats will have three cracks at reconciliation during the current Congress — one for each fiscal year — since neither chamber bothered to adopt a fiscal 2021 budget resolution amid the pandemic.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR AGRICULTURE: Tax changes, stimulus programs and green infrastructure projects are among the most likely options with major implications for agriculture that could be addressed through budget reconciliation. For example, a memo from the law firm Holland & Knight last week notes that a carbon tax is likely to be considered, given its significant revenue benefits, but it remains a controversial idea.

One more budget thing: The official House rules adopted for the new Congress exempt pandemic relief and climate policies from certain budgetary limits — effectively making it easier to bring expensive bills on those topics to the House floor, as Roll Call explains.

The other route Biden can take: Despite the Senate stunners in Georgia handing Democrats full control of Congress, progressives are still pushing Biden to use executive actions to get the ball rolling on his plans for the economy, climate change and other priorities. But the president-elect has sounded cautious about relying on unilateral measures. POLITICO's Laura Barrón-López and Holly Otterbein have the story.

Climate Change

Cracked earth in field in Missouri.

Last year was the fifth-warmest year on record, with each of the top five coming since 2012. Dangerously dry conditions and warm waters fueled a record number of catastrophic wildfires, hurricanes and other disasters.

ANOTHER YEAR OF RECORD CLIMATE DISASTERS: 2020 was one of the warmest years on record for the U.S., fueling 22 extreme weather disasters that each inflicted at least $1 billion in damage — the most in a single year — and a combined $95 billion in losses, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The disasters include a severe derecho in the Midwest, record-smashing Western wildfires and seven tropical cyclones, Pro Energy's Zack Colman reports. Beyond the financial toll, the dangerous weather killed 262 people in 2020 and injured many more.

Global warming played a central role in the disasters, from increasingly dry conditions that fueled destructive wildfires to warmer waters that can propel more intense cyclones. The five warmest years in the U.S. have all occurred since 2012, with 2020 ranking fifth overall, according to NOAA.

Worldwide: The EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that global temperatures in 2020 were tied with 2016 for the highest ever.

KEEP UP WITH THE FIRST 100 DAYS OF THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION WITH TRANSITION PLAYBOOK: It was a dark week in American history, and a new administration will have to pick up the pieces. Transition Playbook brings you inside the last days of this crucial transfer of power, tracking the latest from President-elect Biden and his growing administration. Written for political insiders, this scoop-filled newsletter breaks big news and analyzes the appointments, people, and the emerging power centers of the new administration. Track the transition and the first 100 days of the incoming Biden administration. Subscribe today.

Row Crops

— Pharmacies and supermarket chains are stepping in to help states distribute coronavirus vaccines to front-line workers as the vaccine rollout proceeds more slowly than expected across the country. For example, Kroger executives say they're seeking ways to hold large events in community centers and stadiums to vaccinate hundreds of people at a time, The Wall Street Journal reports.

— Isabel Guzman, Biden's pick to lead the Small Business Administration, will play a central role in the pandemic response when she inherits the Paycheck Protection Program and other massive emergency loan efforts to rescue small employers, including farmers and ranchers. Lawmakers say the agency has not been transparent about its management of the relief efforts cobbled together by Congress in coronavirus relief packages. POLITICO's Zachary Warmbrodt has more for Pros.

— Florida Democrats on Saturday chose former Miami Mayor Manny Diaz to become the state party's next chair, hoping he can lead a Democratic resurgence in the Sunshine State after years of weak statewide performances, including a disastrous 2020 election cycle for the party. Republican Sen. Marco Rubio and Gov. Ron DeSantis are both up for reelection in 2022, per POLITICO Florida's Gary Fineout.

— Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. is investing in Air Protein, a California-based startup working to make meat out of thin air, along with Barclays, Google's VC unit and other financial partners. Air Protein says its probiotic production process, combining oxygen, carbon dioxide, nitrogen, water and minerals, is similar to making yogurt with live cultures, Bloomberg reports.

THAT'S ALL FOR MA! Drop us a line: rmccrimmon@politico.com; hbottemiller@politico.com; lcrampton@politico.com; jyearwood@politico.com and pjoshi@politico.com.