What if we don't have to close businesses?
Going into the holidays, many small business owners and restaurants are bracing for a tough winter of shutdowns. But what if there were a way for cities to respond to the pandemic while keeping the economy alive? |
My Op-Ed today is based on a new study from scientists at Stanford and Northwestern that uses epidemiological estimates and the cellphone data of 98 million Americans to predict how and where the coronavirus spreads. |
The study’s model shows that strict occupancy limits, or “density caps,” could be very effective at reducing infections. The researchers also found a “sweet spot,” around 20 percent capacity, where most infections are prevented but businesses keep a larger share of their customers. |
 | | Yaryna Serkez |
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This means that reducing the maximum occupancy of public spaces like restaurants, gyms, hotels and grocery stores to 20 percent could prevent 87 percent of new infections. While these businesses would still lose some 42 percent of visits, at least some businesses would have a fighting chance to survive. |
And density caps could especially benefit those in lower-income communities. As David Grusky, co-author of the study and director of the Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality, explains, “Because low-income groups are more likely to be essential workers, they tend to be more exposed to infection and work in places that are denser and have longer dwell times.” |
Capacity limits won’t be a silver bullet, but they’re a tool officials can consider using as we fight this deadly virus. |
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