Wednesday, September 15, 2021

Opinion Today: The lives lost to undervaccination, in charts

Some states fell far behind in vaccinations, and the partisan divide is apparent.
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By Nathaniel Lash

Graphics Reporter, Opinion

Roughly 36,000 people died from Covid-19 in the United States from July to the end of August this year. How many could have been saved if the nation as a whole had achieved ambitious, but nevertheless realistic, levels of vaccination?

After a flurry of vaccinations in April and May, each state settled into its own level of protection against the virus. The gaps were wide. By June 20, 74 percent of Vermont adults were fully vaccinated, while in Alabama that figure was just 40 percent.

That was right when the Delta variant came rushing in with a wave of infections (now falling) and a wave of deaths (still rising). What would have happened if the states with less vaccinated populations had caught up to the ones with the most vaccinated?

One answer — which I produced with Emma Pierson, a computer scientist at Cornell Tech, and Jaline Gerardin, an epidemiologist at Northwestern University — points to thousands fewer dead. You can see the results in our essay here, where we explore a hypothetical scenario in which the country overall matched the vaccination rates set by states like Vermont.

It's hard to miss how partisanship over vaccinations has warped the outcome of this wave for many right-leaning states. Thousands more deaths could have been avoided in states that voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

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Delta may not be the last coronavirus variant capable of sending infections soaring. What kind of nation will the next wave of the pandemic encounter?

The United States has all the tools to close the vaccination gap. Thousands of lives will likely be spared if we rise to the challenge.

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