Friday, September 11, 2020

Opinion Today: How Trump could win Pennsylvania

Also: The virus is mutating. So what?
Author Headshot

By Honor Jones

Cover Stories Editor

My family recently moved to Pennsylvania, where I grew up. The other day we were buying sandwiches when a guy with an American flag on his hat asked my husband if he was wearing his shirt “ironically.”

The T-shirt says “Community Organizer” in sherbet letters across the chest. It’s not ironic. My husband is a community organizer, so it’s actually a very literal shirt.

My husband said, “Nope.” I got nervous. Was the guy holding onto some Obama-era grudge against organizers? Did he think we were unionizing the deli workers?

But it was no big deal. “Cool man,” he said, reaching for the chips.

After a dozen years in New York City and New Jersey, it’s strange to be living in a swing state again. You can’t just assume everyone is on the same wavelength.

I think that’s a good thing, especially right now. I’m not, primarily, a politics editor. (I mean, just yesterday I commissioned a piece on the cultural importance of flirting.) But I’m an American and like many of you, I really want to try to understand what that means, and what it means for Nov. 3.

This week I got to work with Michael Sokolove, another Pennsylvanian, on a piece about Joe Biden’s chances in the state. Mike argues that it’s all about the margins. Traditionally, Democrats win big enough in Pennsylvania’s cities and nearby suburbs to offset Republican wins in the countryside. But in 2016 rural voters went for Donald Trump in a landslide.

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The totals in any one of those little rural counties may seem small, Mike writes, but in aggregate they were “enough for Mr. Trump to win Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes by a razor-thin 48.58 percent to 47.85 percent.”

Will the same thing happen this time? Who knows, but Jeff Eggleston, who’s been distributing Biden lawn signs, is hopeful. “There’s a sense of shared purpose that was missing in 2016,” he told Mike. “I feel good about Pennsylvania because of it.”

Wait a second, Democratic readers are thinking, did you just tell me some potentially, possibly, tentative good news? That’s right, and I’ve got even more potentially, possibly, tentative good news for you today!

Edward Holmes, an evolutionary virologist, has written a useful explainer called “The Coronavirus Is Mutating, and That’s Fine (So Far).” Many have speculated that a mutating virus could become more deadly, elude a vaccine and reinfect victims multiple times. Chill, Edward says. All viruses mutate. It actually mutates slower than many other viruses of its kind. And there’s not yet any evidence that those changes are making it deadlier or more infectious.

That’s a relief no matter where you live — or how you vote.

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